Monday, July 27, 2009

Retail CRE: Which Deals Get Renegotiated?

One answer: new, incremental deals in outlying areas. Calculated Risk put up this post a few days ago:

“We’re dumbfounded. We’ve been working on this deal for four-and-a-half years. I don’t know how, all of a sudden, the numbers don’t work.” JMW Development Principal Mark Johnson

From the Minneapolis / St. Paul Business Journal: SuperTarget planned for Woodbury now on hold (ht Arnold)

“Target recently informed JMW that it would not proceed with the project unless it receives “a pretty significant discount” from its previously negotiated deal, JMW Principal Mark Johnson said.
“We’re dumbfounded,” Johnson said, noting that Target officials had told him as recently as June 24 that the project was on track.”

Maybe Target has lowered their retail sales estimates for the store? Just saying ...

Woodbury is an outlying Minneapolis-St. Paul suburb, and already has a Target (“B” on the map below) which is eight minutes from the site of the proposed new store (“A”).


When it negotiated the deal for the new store Target was anticipating new residential growth in Woodbury which is now not going to happen. Without growth the new store won’t hit its numbers, and will cannibalize sales from the older store.