Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Commercial Real Estate Market Stability and Government Centers

Last week I posted on the merits of college town markets (although I glossed over the reasons – Chris Rodriguez goes into more detail in his post “Commercial Real Estate in College Towns – Recession Proof”). Markets with heavy concentrations of government employees also weather the storm better.

The charts below show the 12 month percent change in employment for the largest market in the state, and that state’s capitol. Starting with the state that’s always the worst:

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Employment losses in Lansing are half those of Detroit. Next, Washington:

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Employment loss in Olympia is a quarter of that in Seattle. On to Texas:

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Austin is one of the few places that hasn’t lost jobs at all.

No discussion of government centers is complete without looking at Washington DC. Job losses there are half what they are in the nearest major market (Baltimore):

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Government centers don’t always outperform; Sacramento and Albany performance is about the same as Los Angeles and New York respectively. But, as a general rule the relative stability of government jobs provides a safety net for their markets.

All data from this BLS site.