GDP Growth 1950 – 2009: First quarter GDP decline the worst since the early 1980’s
Credit Crisis Indicators: Credit indicators are headed in the right direction
Recession to End by Fall: Indicators are turning positive
April’s Economic Data in Graphs: Big collection of graphs showing economic data released in April for everything from new home sales to restaurant performance
Consumer Spending Rebound: Personal Consumption Expenditures rebounded in the first quarter
Is the Cutback in Consumer Spending Abnormal? Consumer spending patterns in prior recessions
Job Loss Patterns in this Recession: An interactive map showing the geographic pattern of job losses in this recession over time
General Growth Property Bankruptcy: A set of stories exploring various aspects of the bankruptcy of the nation’s second largest mall owner.
What Direction is the Economy Headed? Russell Investment’s Economic Dashboard shows most indicators are headed in the right direction
Retail Sales Down in March: Declines in gasoline and motor vehicle sales were big contributors
CMBS Performance Trends and Maturities: A comprehensive look at delinquency and loss trends by vintage and asset class, and upcoming maturity risk
Martin Hellwig on the Financial Crisis: A lucid account of how relatively small subprime default losses amplified into today’s financial crisis
Real Disposable Personal Income Up: For the fifth consecutive month
The State of the Economy: A great visualization of seven economic indicators showing normal levels, where we are, and the direction we’re going
Personal Consumption Expenditures Positive for February: Good news on this key indicator.
Calculated Risk has a post on the business cycle based on Edward Leamer’s Housing and the Business Cycle paper. The basic thesis is that residential investment is a leading indicator for recessions, and a leading indicator for recovery:
PCEs are personal consumption expenditures. Here are some supporting charts from Leamer’s paper:
(Click on charts for larger versions in a new window)
The suggestion is that until housing turns around the recession won’t end. Business structures (CRE) clearly lags, so we have a long way to go in that sector.
This reminds me of Joseph Ellis’ work presented in Ahead of the Curve. Ellis sees the cycle like this:
(Click on charts for larger versions in a new window)
For Ellis real consumer spending is the leading indicator, and employment and capital spending both lag. Ellis maintains a series of charts showing the components of his model (available here) and commentary on current conditions. Real hourly earnings leads real consumer spending, and earnings are recently up, so under Ellis’ model we may see an upturn in 2009.
(Click on charts for larger versions in a new window)
February Economic Summary in Graphs: A summary of real estate and economic trends from Calculated Risk
This Recession in Perspective: Charts from the Minneapolis Fed which compare this recession to others from many perspectives
Credit Crisis Indicators: Some progress has been made
Is the Worst Over?: Mounting statistical evidence the worst of the recession may have passed
Paul Volcker on This Recession: What caused it, what’s different this time, how to prevent it from happening again
Deflation Risk Down but not Out: The declining risk of deflation
Six Retailers that are Thriving: Some obvious (Wal-Mart), some not (Best Buy?)
Sales Tax Collections Plunging: Bad news for state and local governments
Is There a Treasury Bubble?: Lots of supply coming, but also lots of demand
Tracking the Household Balance Sheet: Income and debt flat, but net worth down substantially
Sharp Contraction in Trade: Both imports and exports have gone off a cliff
Jobs Forecast by State and Sector: Interactive map and charts of a Moody's Economy.com forecast of job loss/gain by sector and state through 2012
The Housing Market: 1982 versus 2009: A comparison of our current situation with the situation in 1982
The Behavior of LIBOR in This Economic Crisis: Very detailed discussion of LIBOR and its recent movements
Upcoming Economic Indicator Releases: A useful calendar of upcoming economic indicator releases, with links directly to the data sites.
